“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” – Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist
A few weeks ago we asked Fronde’s top thinkers for their predictions for 2010, both in the IT industry and in the wider world. Here’s a selection of the more believable ones.
The top 10 predictions from Fronde’s deepest thinkers…
10. Martin: Apple will launch an 80GB iPhone and music-loving gadget convergence freaks the world over will rejoice.
9. Chris: The cloud metaphor becomes increasingly common, and gets stretched to breaking point. At least one subtype of cloud appears, such as ‘cumulonimbus’. Added by Anon: “Cumulonimble (adj.): Adept at practising an agile project methodology on a cloud-based development platform. ”
8: Paul: With more of corporate and desk-top applications moving into the cloud, PDAs (eg, iPhone, Android) will become even more popular. This will be followed by someone “inventing” a docking station for your PDA so you can use it with a proper keyboard and screen. Prediction: next year we will see the curve on the graph go up that will eventually show PDAs overtake desktops and laptops as the choice of computer at home and work.
7: Kerry (who gets to make more than one prediction):
- Enterprises will start to shy away from large SOA development money-holes, and look towards simpler alternatives, such as REST.
- Full-sized “Netbooks” (ie: low power CPU, no hard-disk) will start to appear, focused on network use only. (ie: Sorta what Paul A said about PDAs)
- Telcos will continue to drop data charges, to further encourage “cloud” based applications in NZ market.
- Amazon and Google will continue to extend their cloud-based platforms, increasing ease of “cloud” development.
- Alternative development toolkits like Grails will become mainstream. (ed: also predicted by Andy)
- ADSL2+ still won’t be available in Cockle Bay (scheduled for Jan 2011)
6: Andy: With government and enterprise getting more comfortable with real Agile projects (as opposed to waterfall wrapped up in Agile catchphrases) there’s much more value in BDD and higher productivity frameworks/languages. Enterprise in NZ might see the light and add dynamic languages like Python, Groovy and Ruby to their offerings, and add TDD/BDD to their repertoires to respond to the higher demand for smaller, quicker releases.
5. Anon: Earphones (for your iPhone, iPod or Android) will be modified to work two-way to transmit your thoughts directly to Twitter (or some other microblog).
4: Carolyn: The Copenhagen meeting actually results in an agreement by major countries to do something about climate change (whoops, got that wrong already). A whole new industry springs up to provide new forms of energy, measure and contain emissions, make polluters meet the environmental costs of their pollution, and suddenly there is a rebound in the global economy as people start to do real work, building new technologies and products to try to reverse climate change (and to adapt to what we’re already stuck with). Fronde develops iPhone apps to buy and sell ETS credits.
3: Desiree: New Zealand earns mega carbon credits by planting a vast forest of native bush on the Canterbury Plains, NIWA finds a viable way of bottling all the water landing on the West Coast and shipping it to Australia, Fronde invents a voice-activated payment system for mobile phones, and Winston Peters officially re-enters politics by getting jiggy with his “Chinese roots” at a party launch at a Tauranga takeaway.
2: Andy: In June heavy fog will blanket the upper North Island for eight days. When it finally lifts, authorities will discover that Devonport is missing. Two elderly Americans with very large suitcases will be stopped by Customs at Auckland airport.
And the prediction most likely to be accurate …
1. Anon: Earlier attempts to predict the future will prove to be inaccurate.
A very merry Christmas and happy New Year to all of our clients, friends, and families. Take care and see you in 2010!